Tuesday, March 04, 2008

High Commodity Prices Drive BC's Economy - Record High Prices Supercharge BC's

Vancouver's Real Estate market is being driven to a large extent by record high demand for natural resources in China and India. These countries are industrializing developing their domestic economies at such a rate that China has recently overtaken the US for #1 spot in the consumption of many types of natural resources. This demand for our resources is having a huge positive effect on Canada's economy as well as Vancouver's real estate market.

More people working in Vancouver for better wages means more money for more real estate. Prices are still rising and with the recent interest rate cut, expect more price increases for Vancouver real estate.

I'd love to hear your thoughts! Feel free to post comments!

Canada's changing work force: a snapshot

TAVIA GRANT

Globe and Mail Update

March 4, 2008 at 9:29 AM EST

Rising commodity prices have ignited demand for workers in everything from construction to energy, mining and retail, making Canadian employment growth the fastest among G7 nations, latest census data show.

Total employment in Canada swelled at an annual average rate of 1.7 per cent between 2001 and 2006, the fastest percentage increase among the Group of Seven nations, Statistics Canada said in its sweeping study of changes in the labour market.

“Employment rose in every part of the country,” the report said. “However, growth was strongest in the West, and especially in Alberta and British Columbia.”

The fastest employment growth was in the mining, oil and gas industries, where employment jumped at nearly four times the national average. “Alberta alone accounted for 70 per cent of the employment growth in this industry,” the report said.

Oil and gas well drillers, testers and related workers led the gains, soaring 78 per cent Growth in the larger construction sector increased 4.5 per cent on average per year, driven by low borrowing costs and a healthy economy. In the five-year period, the sector added almost 200,000 workers, particularly carpenters.

Canada's second-largest service industry — health care and social assistance — also added almost 200,000, translating into 2.6-per-cent growth on average each year, much more than the national average. The gains were widespread, from ambulatory services to medical laboratories to hospitals, the study said.

Healthy consumer demand also prompted growth among retailers such as grocery stores, building materials and supplies stores and car dealerships. The industry increased 1.8 per cent a year on average, putting the number of retail jobs at just over 1.8 million.

On the downside, factories shed 136,700 jobs during the five-year period, or a 1.4-per-cent drop per year, as the Canadian dollar appreciated and companies shifted jobs offshore.

The number of sewing machine operators plunged by a third, while the number of metal fabricators, including steel workers, also dwindled.

Many workers moved west. More than half a million people, or 3.4 per cent of the total work force, moved to a different province or territory in the five-year period, with mobility rates the highest in the territories and Alberta. Most of the movement took place in the mining, oil and gas and public administration industries in 2006, the report said.

Among cities, Barrie, north of Toronto, had the country's fastest employment growth, followed by Kelowna, Calgary and Edmonton.

Of the three largest cities —Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver— Vancouver had the highest employment growth, amid a flurry of condo and Olympic-related construction.

Both Toronto and Montréal experienced slower employment growth, though, compared with the previous five years. Both cities were hurt by factory losses, though Toronto was helped by strong housing and financial markets and Montreal by increases in the construction and child-care sectors.

Windsor appears to be suffering the worst. The southern Ontario town saw steep declines in auto parts manufacturing, prompting the jobless rate to hit 8.3 per cent by 2006 from 6.3 per cent in 2001. That's the third-highest in the country after Saguenay and St. John's, however, jobless rates in both Saguenay and St. John's declined during this five-year period.

Atlantic Canada and pockets in the North still have the country's highest jobless rates.

Immigrants are making up a greater share of the work force. Foreign-born residents made up more than one-fifth of Canada's labour force in 2006, a greater share than in 2001.

The employment rate for core working-age immigrants increased to 77.5 per cent in 2006 while the comparable rate for Canadian born workers was 82.4 per cent.

Rates Cut - More to Come!

Hi All,

Looks like the Bank of Canada is giving us a nice spring gift! We here in Vancouver and BC are experiencing low inflation and good economic growth and now get a nice interest rate cut to ward off whats happening south of the border. Look for more more price increases for the Vancouver real estate market with this mix of good growth, low inflation, and falling interest rates.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this article!

Bank of Canada slashes interest rates

KEVIN CARMICHAEL

Globe and Mail Update

March 4, 2008 at 9:12 AM EST

OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada dropped its key lending rate by half a percentage point, and indicated that further cuts will be needed to insulate Canada from the effects of a U.S. economy that teeters on the brink of recession.

“The deterioration in economic and financial conditions in the United States can be expected to have significant spillover effects on the global economy,” the central bank said in its statement Tuesday.

“Further monetary stimulus is likely to be required in the near term to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term”, the bank said.

Mark Carney's first policy decision as governor left the Bank of Canada's benchmark interest rate at 3.5 per cent. The central bank last reduced borrowing costs by a half point in November 2001 and has adjusted interest rates by that magnitude only four times since moving to a fixed announcement schedule in March 2000.

Mr. Carney and his five deputies on the Governing Council next fix interest rates on April 22.

The decision by the central bank to get more aggressive after quarter-point reductions in December and January shows policy makers doubt Canada's strong domestic economy will hold up next to weaker demand from the country's largest trading partner.

Canada's gross domestic product grew 0.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, the slowest in 4 ½ years and half as much as the Bank of Canada was expecting. The U.S. economy, which consumes some 80 per cent of Canada's exports, was even weaker in the fourth quarter, advancing at a 0.6 per cent annual rate.

“There are clear signs the U.S. economy is likely to experience a deeper and more prolonged slowdown than had been projected in January,” the central bank said in the statement, citing the housing market, which is suffering the biggest collapse in generation. “These developments suggest that important downside risks to Canada's economic outlook that were identified in (January) are materializing and, in some respects, intensifying.” The Bank of Canada sets interest rates to keep inflation advancing at about 2 per cent a year, and uses a measure that strips out volatile prices such as energy to predict where costs are heading.

Canada's core rate of inflation was 1.4 per cent, leaving plenty of room for today's half-point cut, economists said before the announcement.

While conceding that Canada's domestic demand remains “buoyant” and that companies were producing above capacity, policy makers determined the bigger worry is economy won't generate enough activity to keep inflation at its 2 per cent target.

“The bank now judges that the balance of risks around its January projection for inflation has clearly shifted to the downside,” the Bank of Canada said.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

A new website for Yaletown's QuayWest Resort Residences at 1067 Marinaside Crescent

I am proud to announce the launch of www.1067marinaside.ca The site for 1067 Marinaside Crescent is the latest in a series of websites focussed on Downtown Vancouver residential condo buildings where I have had notable successes.

The site gives a clear picture of picture of current real estate activity at 1067 Marinaside Crescent. You will find all active listings as well as all past sales at the QuayWest Resort Residences since the building was completed to Concord Pacific in 2002.

www.1067marinasidecrescent.ca also has floor plans, strata minutes, bylaws, and a Google Map of Quaywest II.

This site provides the best exposure available online for those looking to sell a suite at 1067 Marinaside as well as providing information for those interested in buying in the building.

Feel free to contact me at anytime for more information on www.1067marinaside.ca

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Mantra Kitsilano Pricing and Suite Availability

I just received a list of pricing from the presentation centre for Mantra Kitsilano as well as floor plans of the suites available. If you are interested in the prices for Mantra Vancouver and what is available in this great pre-sale condo development please call me at 604-763-3136 or email me

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Interest Rates Set To Fall! Low Inflation Will Trigger BOC Rate Cuts - Good news For Vancouver Real Estate

Vancouver and BC's continuing strong economic performance is going to get a shot in the arm from the Bank of Canada. Central Canada's woes caused by US economic weakness and a high Canadian Dollar/weak US dollar has cut inflation in Canada. Inflation is what the Bank of Canada looks at when deciding on rate cuts. Look forward to a lot more good news for Vancouver Real Estate and for BC's economy in general.

I am interested in your thoughts! Feel free to post a comment!

Inflation rate hits five-month low

TAVIA GRANT

Globe and Mail Update

February 19, 2008 at 10:09 AM EST

Canada's inflation rate eased to a five-month low last month as the effect of a federal goods and services tax cut took effect and car prices cooled, clearing the way for deeper interest-rate cuts if needed.

The consumer price index rose at an annual 2.2-per-cent pace in January from 2.4 per cent a month earlier, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. Core prices, used by the Bank of Canada as a more stable indicator, rose 1.4 per cent, the slowest pace in two-and-a-half years.

The GST cut shaved about 0.6 per cent from consumer prices just as a strong dollar is keeping retailers such as car dealers in price-cutting mode. Inflation will likely slide below 2 per cent as stores keep passing on exchange-rate savings to consumers, predicted Stéfane Marion, economist at National Bank Financial.

The dampening effect of the currency leaves Canada “with roughly half the current U.S. inflation rate,” noted Bank of Montreal. Average inflation among OECD countries, meantime, is 3.3 per cent.

That leaves the door open for rate cuts when the central bank meets on March 4. The Bank of Canada's new governor, Mark Carney, signalled yesterday that borrowing costs will likely fall as the economy softens.

“The continuing softness in core CPI will give the Bank of Canada plenty of room to cut interest rates further, and adds support to our call for a 50-basis-point rate cut on March 4,” said Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist at TD Securities, in a note.

Upward pressure on inflation stemmed from rising gasoline prices and mortgage interest costs. Gasoline jumped 20.9 per cent between January of this year and last, a much hotter pace that the 14.9-per-cent gain observed in December and “the main factor in higher consumer prices,” Statscan said.

The gain was due to a sharp drop in prices in January of 2007 rather than any big change this year.

Owning a home got a bit pricier. Mortgage interest costs accelerated to 7.6 per cent while homeowners' replacement cost, or the cost of maintaining a home, increased 4.5 per cent.

Heating oil and other fuel prices jumped 24.7 per cent, though this was less than December's pace.

“This comparatively slower growth occurred despite colder temperatures that gave rise to higher demand, and despite below-average inventory levels in the north-eastern United States,” the report said.

On the flip side, buying or leasing a car was 4.9-per-cent cheaper than a year ago because of the GST cut and as manufacturer discounted new models. “This continuation of incentives came when the Canadian dollar was up relative to its U.S. counterpart,” the report noted.

Computer equipment and supply prices fell at the fastest pace in five months, sliding 16.7 per cent, led by declines in monitor and laptop prices.

Women's clothing was 4.5 per cent less expensive in January, the fastest decline in three years, because of post-Christmas sales and the GST cut.

Among provinces, inflation slowed or held steady across the board. It was particularly benign in British Columbia, where consumer prices were just 0.8 per cent higher than a year ago.

As for the GST, which was reduced the GST to 5 per cent from 6 per cent in January, the impact on prices varies. Some businesses likely boosted their margins at the same time, and others, such as car dealers, may have already cut prices in anticipation of the coming reduction, Statscan noted.

Monday, February 18, 2008

The Beasley 399 Smithe Amacon's New Project in Downtown Vancouver

Amacon's Beasley Condo Building located at 399 Smithe Street in Downtown Vancouver is beginning previews on March 1st, 2008 with sales of the project scheduled for March 15, 2008. This 34 story residential condo building will have suites ranging in size from 540-1300 square feet and prices should start in the low to mid $400K's.

If you are interested in this project or would like to take advantage of the high priority registration I have with the developer, please call me at 604-763-3136 or email me here

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Why Vancouver and Western Canada will be spared a Recession

If the US is an indicator of whats happening in Canada, we here in Vancouver and Western Canada in general should be fine. British Columbia and Vancouver derive their wealth to a large extent from natural resources, not unlike Montana in this article. Read on and i would love to hear your thoughts.

The geography of recession

Feb 7th 2008 | CHICAGO, HELENA, LOS ANGELES AND WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

The latest national statistics are gloomy. Yet America's economic downturn will be felt unevenly

YOU won't hear the R-word much in the modest governor's mansion in Helena, Montana. The occupant, Brian Schweitzer, insists that Montana's economy is in better shape than it has ever been. It has had one of the fastest rates of job growth in the country. The state is prospering on the back of booms in mining and farming, as well as steady growth in tourism. Paul Polzin of the University of Montana forecasts that the state's economy will grow by 4.1% this year, the fifth consecutive year of growth above 4%. “We've been searching for realistic doomsday scenarios,” he says, “and we just can't find any.”

Go to Michigan, by contrast, and it is hard to find anything but gloom. The collapse of America's car industry, coupled with a nasty subprime mortgage bust, has left the state reeling. It has the highest unemployment rate in the country (7.6%) and the third-highest foreclosure rate, and was the only state to lose a large number of jobs in 2007. In the run-up to the state's Republican primary (which he won) Mitt Romney traversed Michigan, promising to save voters from a “one-state recession”.

National statistics suggest that the country may have already tipped into a formal recession. Output rose by only 0.6% at an annual rate in the last three months of 2007, a figure that could easily be revised down to a fall. Residential construction is plunging, house prices are dropping, consumer spending is slowing and the economy shed 17,000 jobs in January, the first such decline since 2003. A monthly gauge of services activity, published on February 5th, has fallen dramatically and now suggests recessionary conditions. The big question—particularly for those on the presidential campaign trail—is where will the pain be felt most acutely, and how far it will spread.

So far, much of the misery has been concentrated in one sector—housing—and in two distinct sets of states: the industrial Midwest and those states that saw the biggest housing bubble, particularly California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. These two groups are disproportionately important politically. They include many states that voted early in the primary races. Several of them (such as Michigan and Florida) are traditionally swing states in the general election.

The situation is still grimmest in Michigan, Ohio and other erstwhile manufacturing strongholds, where the subprime bust came on top of the secular loss of factory jobs. But the most dramatic weakening has been in bubble states. Economies that were buoyed by booming construction and soaring house prices are now being dragged down.

California's mighty economy is visibly wobbling. In some cities, house prices are falling at double-digit rates and the unemployment rate has jumped from 4.8% to 6.1% in the past year, an increase twice as steep as the national trend. In Los Angeles, the weak dollar and slower consumer spending have sharply cut import-traffic through the port. This downturn is not as gut-wrenching as those in the early 1990s or 2001, when core industries such as defence and technology suffered badly. But it is steep enough to have thrown the state's budget into disarray and derailed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's ambitious plans for health-care reform.

In Florida, Nevada and Arizona the story is similar: plunging house prices, rising foreclosures and disproportionate increases in unemployment. Not all is gloomy: in these states, as in the rest of America, strong global growth and the weak dollar have buoyed export industries and boosted tourism. (Orlando International Airport, the gateway to Disney World, saw a record number of passengers last year.) But these positives have failed to counter the drag from housing and weaker consumer spending. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, reckons that all four bubble states, along with Michigan, are already in recession. Together, he points out, they make up 25% of America's GDP.

Joy on the plains and mountains

Move inland from the coasts and away from the industrial Midwest, however, and the picture, for now, looks less grim. A belt running from Texas north-west across the Great Plains and the Rocky Mountains has been doing particularly well, thanks to soaring exports and high commodity prices. Ethanol subsidies and “agflation” have brought a bonanza to the farm states. Agricultural exports are up almost 20% compared with 2006, while farm incomes are growing smartly. Extractive industries are booming. Miners find it worthwhile to dig for copper in Butte, Montana, even though the operators say it is the worst-grade ore in the world. These states now have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. With far less of a housing boom, they have also avoided the worst of the subprime bust.

For politicians from Butte to Topeka, the question now is whether this good fortune will continue. Regional disparities, both in good times and bad, are no surprise in a vast continental economy. During the 1991 recession California and New England suffered disproportionately, thanks to banking crises and defence cutbacks. The 2001 downturn hit states with high-tech hubs hardest at first, while its hangover lasted longest in the industrial Midwest. This time a lot depends on the rest of the world. If emerging economies remain resistant to an American recession and commodity prices stay strong, America's exporting regions will benefit.

That fillip aside, several factors suggest that even America's strongest states face tougher times ahead. The housing market is already weakening well beyond the bubble states. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, house prices fell in each of America's 20 big metropolitan areas in November. And, thanks in large part to the credit crunch, economic weakness is spreading well beyond housing. The Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of loan officers, released on February 4th, showed banks demanding tighter lending conditions from consumers and firms alike. And if, as futures markets suggest, house prices have further to fall, that credit crunch will only get worse.

A downturn centred on housing will have pernicious effects, even on the regions it hits least. That is because it constrains one of the biggest safety valves in America's economy: people's ability to move. Previous downturns spawned sizeable migrations from recessionary states to booming ones. In the early 1990s, for instance, people flocked from New England to southern states. This time, that mobility is hampered by people's inability to sell their homes. Unemployment may go on rising in California, even though Montana cannot get the workers it needs.

Mantra Kitsilano - Floor Plans and Disclosure Statement Now Available

Mantra in Kitsilano had recently gone on sale and I was fortunate to assist some of my clients purchase suites in the building. If you are interested in more information on Mantra or having a look at the Disclosure Statement from the developer or would like to see the floor plans for Mantra Kitsilano, drop me a line by clicking here.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Economy adds slew of new jobs - More Good News For Vancouver Real Estate

Low inflation and falling interest rates has ensured continuing confidence in Canada's economy. This translates into the continuing rise in Vancouver's real estate market.

Let me know your thoughts.

TAVIA GRANT

Globe and Mail Update

February 8, 2008 at 9:51 AM EST

Canadian employers added many more jobs than expected last month and the jobless rate tumbled to a 33-year low in another sign of the contrasting economies between Canada and the U.S.

The economy created 46,400 positions in January, quadruple forecasts, most of them in the private sector and full time, Statistics Canada said Friday. The unemployment rate slid to 5.8 per cent as a record number of Canadians headed to work last month.

It's a stark difference from a U.S. report last week , which showed the first jobs slide in four years, led by construction firms and factories, deepening concern that the world's largest economy is sliding into recession.

“Today's upbeat jobs report lends some heavy-duty weight to the view that the Canadian economy is faring better than its U.S. counterpart,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, who cautioned that “a deeper dive in U.S. activity would no doubt eventually find an echo in Canadian growth.”

The Canadian dollar broke through parity after the report suggested the economy remains robust. A jobless rate at a generational low and strong wage growth “reinforces the idea that the Bank of Canada will not need to make the deep, protracted rate cuts that we've seen from the Federal Reserve to keep the Canadian economy afloat,” said Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist at TD Securities, in a note.

Even factories added jobs last month. The manufacturing sector created about 17,000 positions, though the increase may be a one-month blip. The industry has shed 113,000 jobs in the past year and most believe further cuts will come as the dollar stays high and U.S. demand withers.

January's surge was led by full-time positions and brought total growth over the past year to 337,000 new positions. Full-time work has grown at nearly twice the pace as part-time in that time.

Growth in the private sector led January's increase, reversing a year-long trend of largely public-sector job creation. Professional, scientific and technical services as well as construction companies spurred last month's gains.

Building activity topped expectations at the start of this year, led by a flurry of condo construction, a separate report on January housing starts said today. Builders broke ground on 222,700 units in January, a big rebound from December, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said.

Among provinces, Alberta, British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador saw record employment rates last month while Quebec's jobless rate fell to a 33-year low of 6.8 per cent.

Tight labour markets continue to underpin wage growth. Average hourly wages were 4.9 per cent higher than a year ago, the second month in a row that it's been the highest in at least a decade. January marked the sixth straight month with an increase in hourly wages at or above 4 per cent, the report said.

Statscan revised previous numbers to smooth out seasonal bumps. As a result, December's job losses are estimated at 2,900 jobs rather than the 18,700 that was originally reported.

Economists had expected just 10,000 new Canadian jobs with the jobless rate remaining at 6 per cent. January's 5.8-per-cent jobless rate matched levels last seen in October.

The biggest employment gains in January were among women aged 55 and over and men aged 25 to 54.

Older workers are flocking to the work force. Employment has increased 10 times faster among older workers than among middle-aged workers “owing in part to the growth of this group within an aging Canadian population and in part to the steady rise in their employment rate since 1997,” Statscan noted.

Monday, February 04, 2008

2007 Sales Results!

Hi All,

The results are in their good!

I have had the fourth highest sales at Century 21 In Town Realty for 2007 & I am # 91 in sales for all of Century 21 Canada!

Thanks to my clients!

Mike

Friday, January 25, 2008

The way is clear for aggressive interest rate cuts - great for Vancouver Real Estate! Core inflation cools to two-year low

The way is clear for the Bank of Canada to get aggressive with interest rate cuts. Tory tax cuts coupled with an appreciating Canadian dollar (or weak US$, depending on your perspective) has reduced inflation to sweet spot where the Bank of Canada can lower interest rates significantly with out worries of overheating the economy with interest rate induced inflation.

Watch Vancouver real estate take a big jump this year with continuing lower rates.

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

TAVIA GRANT

Globe and Mail Update

January 25, 2008 at 11:41 AM EST

Core inflation sank to the lowest level in two years last month as car dealers chopped prices to stay competitive with U.S. rivals, a sign that price increases pose little threat to the Canadian economy.

Overall consumer prices cooled to a 2.4-per-cent annual gain last month from 2.5 per cent in November, Statistics Canada said Friday. Core prices, which strip out the most volatile items in the index, rose a less-than-expected 1.5 per cent.

The release comes one day after the Bank of Canada chopped its view of core inflation to below 1.5 per cent by mid-year as retailers adjust prices due to a strong dollar and the GST reduction takes hold. The central bank, which plans to cut interest rates, keeps a close watch on core prices because they tend indicate future inflation trends.

Friday's report will let the bank “provide stimulus to the Canadian economy and cushion the blow from the slowing U.S. economy, without worrying too much about re-igniting inflation pressures,” said Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist at TD Securities, in a note.

Economists had expected overall inflation to rise 2.4 per cent with core prices gaining 1.7 per cent.

Cars became cheaper last month amid pressure to bring Canadian prices in line with the U.S. The price for buying and leasing a vehicle slid 4.1 per cent, “attributable to a continuation of discounts on new 2008 models,” Statscan said.

Price easing showed up elsewhere too. Fresh fruit and vegetables dampened food prices, led by declines for oranges and apples, at 15.8 per cent and 13.1 per cent.

Computer equipment and supplies prices continued to decline as Canadians paid less for video equipment. A sharp drop in prices for liquid crystal display screens and for laptop computers contributed to the declines, the report said.

The price of books and other printed material, excluding textbooks, tumbled 7.7 per cent.

All that mitigated upward pressure from pricier housing and gasoline costs.

Prices at the pump jumped 14.9 per cent between December of this year and last, though that was down from the previous month. Higher crude oil prices are responsible for the gain in gas, which accounts for about 5 per cent of the CPI basket weighting.

Mortgage interest costs were 7.3 per cent higher last month and homeowners' replacement costs — which represents the cost of maintaining a housing structure — advanced 4.4 per cent.

Restaurant food is also exerting inflationary pressure while at the grocery store, baked goods are more expensive amid soaring global wheat prices.

Among regions, the biggest slowdowns took place in Alberta — in recent years the country's hot-bed for inflation — and Saskatchewan.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

More Good News for Vancouver Real Estate - Central bank says Canada will avoid recession

The Bank of Canada is moving to reduce interest rates to help Central Canada's manufacturers which are highly integrated with the US manufacturing sector hit hard by reduced demand in the America.

Western Canada's hot economy is being driven by overall market demand for natural resources in Asia and to a far lesser extent the US (except oil). Natural resources are at an all time high from increased Asian demand. If there is a reduction in US demand there will still be Asian demand which has been growing at double digit rates and will continue to do so. Resources prices may come off their all time highs, but should remain high enough to keep Western Canada's economy in great shape.

The continuing reductions in interest rates here in Canada coupled with strong economic growth in Western Canada from high natural resource prices should result in rising prices for Vancouver real estate.

I would love to hear your thoughts.

HEATHER SCOFFIELD

Globe and Mail Update

January 24, 2008 at 1:05 PM EST

OTTAWA — Canada's economy has stagnated, and it wouldn't take much to tip the United States into a recession, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge says.

The central bank's official projection is for the U.S. economy to barely budge in the first half of this year, expanding by just 0.5 per cent an annualized pace.

In Canada, the central bank sees a 0.6 per cent pace right now, but picking up to 2.0 in the second quarter, and 2.3 per cent in the last half of the year.

“We will come through 2008 fine. It won't feel so fine,” Mr. Dodge told reporters in his final news conference before he retires. “There is a lot more adjustment to come in financial markets.”

“These numbers, it's hard to measure precisely. So that number of 0.5 per cent, when they report after the first quarter and after the second quarter, initially they could well report something less,” he told reporters. “Don't take this as some number that is cooked up with a huge degree of precision.”

Regardless, it won't be pretty.

“Our base case for the U.S is for incredibly slow growth,” he said.

He indicated that interest rates in the United States and in Canada will have to be cut in the near future, but he said this week's emergency rate cut of three-quarters of a percentage point by the U.S. Federal Reserve did not change his outlook.

“The major change is much weaker net exports,” the bank said, explaining why it had dramatically slashed its forecast from more upbeat projections just three months ago.

“While import growth is expected to stay robust over the projection period, the outlook for Canadian exports has been marked down, reflecting the weaker U.S. economic outlook.”

While the United States will narrowly skirt a recession in the first half of 2008, its economic recovery will be slow, and will not really take hold until 2009, the Bank of Canada predicts. (A recession is generally understood to be two straight quarters of contraction.)

For the entire year, Canadian gross domestic product will grow a sluggish 1.8 per cent, but pick up to 2.8 per cent in 2009, according to the latest forecast.

All told, the Canadian economy will need more support from monetary policy, the central bank said, reiterating that it would continue to cut its key interest rate in the near term. It did not indicate how deeply it would cut.

The report is Mr. Dodge's final outlook before ending his seven-year tenure at the end of January and ceding his position to Mark Carney, a former senior official at the Department of Finance, and before that, an investment banker.

The Bank of Canada trimmed its rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday, at the same time as the U.S. Federal Reserve was aggressively cutting its own rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, to put a halt to financial market freefall. The Bank of Canada made its own trim without knowing that the Fed was about to make such a bold decision, leaving many market-watchers to wonder whether the Canadian bank had done enough.

In Thursday's monetary policy report, however, the Bank of Canada expressed no regrets at not having moved further earlier this week, and suggested the Fed cut had not changed the central bank's long-term thinking. The report also indicated that bank officials had updated their report since the Fed move, and also assumed that the Fed would continue to stimulate the U.S. economy.

The slump in the U.S. housing sector is proving to be “deeper and more prolonged” than expected, cutting into household wealth. Credit conditions are also tightening. The result is a drop off in U.S. demand, hurting Canada's export potential.

Canadian exports for the entire year are expected to decline by 0.1 per cent, the central bank projected.

At the same time, Canadian households and businesses are facing borrowing rates that continue to climb, even though the central bank has cut its own target rate twice recently.

Since October, the bank's key rate has fallen 50 basis points, but the difference between the bank's rate and household borrowing rates has risen 20 to 25 basis points since then (a basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point). And the spread for non-financial businesses has risen 15 to 20 basis points since October.

“There has been a considerable widening in credit spreads in Canadian and global bond markets for financial and non-financial institutions,” the central bank recognized.

The report did not make any suggestions as to how the central bank could affect those spreads and narrow them so that credit conditions would more closely track monetary policy.

As for the Canadian dollar, the Bank of Canada seems satisfied that the current level a couple of cents below par is appropriate for what is happening in Canada's economy right now.

“After spiking sharply early in November, the dollar has since declined to trade around the level of 98 cents (U.S.).... This level is not inconsistent with fundamental factors.”

Indeed, the Canadian dollar has driven inflation down well below the central bank's expectations three months ago, the report said. Despite earlier statements that the exchange rate doesn't have much an effect on inflation, the psychology of trading near par with the U.S. dollar has had a significant impact, the bank said.

“It appears that the Canadian dollar's rise to close to parity with the U.S. dollar raised consumers' awareness of the considerable differences between Canadian and U.S. prices and led to a greater-than-projected downward adjustment of the prices of some goods, particularly automobiles.”

The Canadian economy is still operating above its production capacity right now, but that is quickly coming to an end. By the second quarter of this year, the economy will have a bit of excess supply, the report said.

Core inflation (which excludes the most volatile prices) is projected to remain well below the central bank's two-per-cent target for the rest of the year and most of 2009, the bank said. Total inflation should stick near the two-per-cent mark, however, because of an assumption of high oil prices.

Overall, the continuing troubles in the U.S. economy and the market turbulence that has accompanied the slump have forced the Bank of Canada to seriously slash their forecasts for growth and inflation in Canada and the United States.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Strata Minutes, Floor plans, and Current Listings at the The Freesia, 1082 Seymour

Mike Stewart, a Vancouver Realtor specializing in Yaletown, Downtown, Coal Harbour and the West End has developed a new website - www.Freesiavancouver.com as a resource for owners and people interested in 1082 Seymour. www.freesiavancouver.com strives to offer as much up to date real estate market information on 1082 Seymour as possible. Should you find some of the information incorrect, incomplete, or in some other way lacking please contact us and let us know how we can do better.

The website has all of the real estate listings at The Freesia presently on the market. The active listings at 1082 Seymour are updated daily. Mike's team has also compiled a complete list of all the sold listings at 1082 Seymour since the building completed in 2006.

Strata Minutes for 1082 Seymour can also be found on the site along with floor plans for The Freesia. There is also a section on www.freesiavancouver.com that has info on The Freesia including the builder, the architect, and the development team.

Should you have any questions on The Freesia please send Mike Stewart an email or call him at 604-763-3136 Stewart

Friday, January 18, 2008

A US recession may not be that bad for Vancouver's real estate market

People have been asking me how the credit situation in the US and a potential recession down there and this article is in line with my arguments that a US downturn will not affect Vancouver's real estate market hugely.

My reasoning is this. BC and Alberta's economies are being supercharged by demand for natural resources that China and India are consuming voraciously. The US consumes our resources too, but prices are at all time highs for these commodities because of the Asian demand.

If demand in the US declines prices may come off the all time highs, but prices will still be good because of Asian demand that didn't exist 15-20 years ago will still be there and growing.

Read the article below and let me know your thoughts.

Can commodities shake off a U.S. recession?

ROMA LUCIW

Globe and Mail Update

January 18, 2008 at 12:40 PM EST

Commodity prices have brushed aside escalating fears of a U.S. recession and stayed near record highs, leading one Canadian economist to suggest that the U.S. economy's importance in the overall global equation — and especially for resource markets — is waning.

“Whether the U.S. is heading for a recession or just a mid-cycle slowdown remains to be seen,” CIBC World Markets chief economist Jeff Rubin wrote in a report released Friday. “But the more important question for crude, base metals and other resource markets, is whether it really matters any more.”

A growing sense of gloom about the prospects for the U.S. economy has hammered stock markets this week. Canada's benchmark equity index has been hit particularly hard on the notion that a slowdown in the U.S. will soon spread to other countries and curb demand for Canadian natural resources.

However, Mr. Rubin pointed out Friday that commodity prices have stubbornly held their ground in the face of the recent stock selloff: crude oil futures are trading at $90 (U.S.) a barrel while copper is worth $3.20.

The biggest factor behind the stubborn strength of commodity prices is the dwindling importance of the U.S. economy to the global economy, Mr. Rubin said. In the late 1990s, the American economic growth accounted for nearly 30 per cent of global growth while today it accounts for only 10 per cent.

“And that loss is much greater when it comes to impacting resource markets,” he said.

Mr. Rubin made headlines last week when he forecast that Canadians will soon be paying $1.50 (Canadian) a litre for gasoline. His assertion that crude prices, which surged to a record high above $100 (U.S.) a barrel at the start of 2008, will likely hit $150 by 2012 is based on the belief that burgeoning global demand for will outpace supply.

On Friday, he pointed out that while the U.S. is still by far the largest global user of oil, its contribution to global demand growth in the last two years has been flat. Furthermore, the economist maintains that when pump prices in the U.S. hit $4.50 a gallon by 2012, American crude consumption will fall even further.

“More or less the same story can be told for base metals,” Mr. Rubin said. “While bearish reports on the U.S. economy can still unnerve base metal markets, there is little in the pattern of recent demand growth to substantiate such fears.”

American consumption of zinc and copper has dropped while aluminum and nickel has remained flat in the last five years. During that same time period, demand from China has jumped 20 per cent annually, making it easy to see why base metal prices have stayed high even as the U.S. economy ebbs.

The increasingly dire nature of the recently economic data in the U.S. has heated up talk of a recession, but economists and strategists are divided on whether the U.S. economy is already mired in a recession or just close to one.

U.S. President George W. Bush and central bank chief Ben Bernanke have endorsed a stimulus package that they hope will prevent the spreading housing mess — and the credit woes stemming from the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market — from triggering an official recession.

Economists surveyed last week by The Wall Street Journal pegged the odds of a recession this year at 42 per cent up from 38 per cent in December and 23 per cent just six months ago. Goldman Sachs pointed to last month's dismal jobs report as evidence that the U.S. economy is likely headed for a recession.

National Bank Financial has the odds of a U.S. recession at 70 per cent, up from 50 per cent in August, and a Canadian recession at 30 per cent, up from 20 per cent a few weeks ago.

"As far as the S&P/TSX is concerned, the question is whether the decoupling of Asian emerging economies with the U.S. will hold, leaving the commodity rally alive," said Clément Gignac, National Bank's chief economist and strategist.

Mr. Rubin believes there is an “exaggerated element” to fears of a U.S. weakness. Default rates on subprime mortgages will never get anywhere close to the 50 per cent rate that the credit default swap market has already discounted, he said, while U.S. factory orders — normally hardest hit in a recession — appear to be rising.

The U.S. economy is not in a recession right now, the CIBC report said, although that does not mean it will not slide into one in the coming months.

Economists at CIBC are calling for first-quarter 2008 U.S. real GDP growth to remain barely positive at 0.2 per cent before rebounding to 2 per cent in the second quarter and 2.2 per cent in the third. Their Canadian growth outlook, meanwhile, predicts GDP expansion of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter, and 2.7 per cent in both the second and third quarters.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Mike Stewart, Downtown Vancouver Real Estate Specialist: An attack from the Left on EcoDensity

EcoDensity won't cut house prices

Straight Issues By Pieta Woolley

Publish Date: November 29, 2007

Mayor Sam Sullivan and his NPA colleagues want to bring densification to more neighbourhoods. Pieta Woolley photo.

Real-estate agent Richard Morrison, who specialized in investment properties, thinks the city's EcoDensity initiative is a great way to keep property values from skyrocketing in Vancouver. He just sold a single-family home, worth nearly a million dollars, to an investor, who then tore it down and built eight 1,000-square-foot units that will sell for between $400,000 and $500,000.

"Way more density is the only way I see a softening of the market," Morrison told the Georgia Straight on November 27. "$450,000 is very affordable. Much more than buying an average home in that neighbourhood for $800,000."

The problem is that $450,000 is still double what the average Vancouver family can afford if the home doesn't have a secondary suite. With a median household income of about $56,200, according to Statistics Canada, most families max out at a $300,000 mortgage if they pay 30 percent of their incomes over a 25-year term.

According to www.mls.ca/ , $300,000 will still buy a two-bedroom condo in some parts of East Vancouver. It will also buy a three-bedroom townhouse or a small, single-family home in Maple Ridge–a long commute and the opposite of EcoDensity's goal.

Vancouver, you are my density

> For the 15 years between 1991 and 2006, the city grew by about 106,000 people.

> The city also grew by about 69,000 housing units.

> At 2.2 people per unit, that should have accommodated 151,800 more people, which could have created the conditions for a housing glut and falling housing prices.

> Instead, housing prices doubled over that time period.

> In 2006, there were 4,736 new housing units completed in Vancouver–the most in a single year since 1995.

> The vast majority of those were in eastern downtown and the East Side.

> Strathcona, Kitsilano, and Kerrisdale received the fewest number of new housing units.

> In 2007, 3,294 new condo units will have been completed in downtown alone.

Sources: City of Vancouver Housing Centre; Statistics Canada; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

At City Hall on November 27, Vancouver's director of planning, Brent Toderian, told councillors that EcoDensity won't provide housing that meets average incomes. He said that the initiative is really about keeping the market softer than it would be with less density.

"I don't think we could affect [housing] supply to the point that prices would go down," said Toderian. "Especially at the mid level."

Toderian was presenting his department's draft charter and draft initial actions on EcoDensity. It's the mayor-driven "acknowledgement that high quality and strategically located density can make Vancouver more sustainable, livable and affordable", according to www.vancouver-ecodensity.ca/ .

EcoDensity has been billed as supplying more housing through densification–laneway homes, condos on top of stores, rezoning sprawling house-oriented neighbourhoods to accommodate low-rise apartments–and prices would drop into the affordable zone.

Vision Vancouver councillors Heather Deal and Tim Stevenson slammed Toderian's draft for leaving out true affordability. Deal said EcoDensity, in this report, is no different from green bonuses for developers. Stevenson wanted to know if his "ordinary kids with ordinary jobs" will be able to afford to live in the city.

"What is ordinary may change in the future," Toderian responded.

Vancouver's developers have, in fact, been densifying Vancouver swifter than the population has grown for 15 years. And, instead of prices dropping, they've soared since 1991.

Morrison told the Straight that the rush to buy condos in Coal Harbour and Yaletown is fuelled by investors, rather than folks seeking out a primary residence. He would like to know who owns the condos downtown, and who is living in them. No one seems to know.

Vancouver senior planner Rob Whitlock told the Straight his department plans to study that as part of a rental survey in 2008-09.

"Empty housing stock is very difficult to estimate," he said. "BC Stats has previously undertaken some analysis based on hydro usage, which indicated that four percent of all downtown apartments were identified as unoccupied in 2003, with eight to nine percent of condo apartments included in that number." In addition, he said, the 2001 census found that 2,600 downtown apartments were unoccupied.

Whitlock defended the idea that building more homes leads to a softer market, if not affordability. "If the number of units had not occurred, housing prices in the city generally would have escalated at an even faster rate," he said, echoing the EcoDensity draft report. "The more difficult objective for EcoDensity will be addressing housing costs for those with lower incomes, working poor, families, and others who are unable to compete in the current market."

As Deal pointed out, there's nothing in the report that requires affordability. EcoDensity has gone on to another round of public consultation, and will be back before council February 24, 2008

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Canadian dollar tumbles after rate cut - The Cut Works!

TAVIA GRANT

Globe and Mail Update

December 4, 2007 at 4:11 PM EST

The Canadian dollar hit its lowest level since September after the Bank of Canada cut its key lending rate Tuesday, citing a worsening U.S. housing market and turmoil in credit markets.

The currency shed more than a cent, trading at 98.80 cents (U.S.) from Monday's close of 99.98 cents, to its lowest level in two-and-a-half months. It closed Tuesday's session at 98.78 cents, down 1.20. Lower interest rates tend to diminish the allure of a country's currency.

The loonie has tumbled 11 per cent from last month's peak as a growing number of Canadian economic reports have highlighted a slowdown in exports and consumer spending.

“Overall sentiment certainly seems to have changed over the last few weeks, moving against the Canadian dollar,” said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia. She sees the loonie staying below parity for the rest of this month before appreciating again in the first quarter.

“The bank judges that there has been a shift to the downside in the balance of risks around its October projection for inflation through 2009,” the bank said. “In light of this shift, the bank has decided to lower the target for the overnight rate.”

Traders betting in futures markets are pricing in an 80-per-cent chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut in the first quarter, and are fully pricing in a second such cut in the second quarter of next year, according to Ideaglobal.

“We expect this to continue weighing on the Canadian currency moving forward,” said David Powell, Ideaglobal's currency analyst in New York, in a note.

Most strategists still believe the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in cutting rates than the Bank of Canada though -- and that may be limiting the loonie's decline. Almost half of traders now believe the Fed will cut 50 basis points at its meeting next week.

The Canadian dollar had soared as high as $1.10 in early November before settling around the parity mark – one of the most turbulent months for the currency in at least a decade – something the bank noted in today's statement.

“In the context of exceptional volatility in global financial markets, the Canadian dollar spiked well above parity with the U.S. dollar in November,” though it has recently moved to where the central bank had expected it would be, the bank noted.

Tuesday's statement gave little indication of whether interest rates will fall further. The central bank next meets on Jan. 22 in what will be Governor David Dodge's last decision before Mark Carney assumes the mantle.

“The door is open to further rate cuts although it is not a fait accompli at this particular point in time,” said Stewart Hall, market strategist at HSBC Securities (Canada).

Interest Rates Fall! More good news for Vancouver's Property Market! Central bank cuts interest rates as high loonie, credit turmoil raise fears

Pressure on the Central Canadian manufacturing sector from the high loonie has prompted the Bank of Canada to reduce rates.

This great for Vancouver's real estate market.

We don't have Central Canada's problems with the high loonie stemming from being integrated with US manufacturing. BC's & Vancouver's economy are some of the strongest in Canadeqa. Lower interest rates make real estate more affordable by giving buyers more spending power.

Keep you fingers crossed for more good news from the Bank of Canada!

HEATHER SCOFFIELD

Globe and Mail Update

December 4, 2007 at 10:20 AM EST

OTTAWA — The high Canadian dollar and turmoil in credit markets have prompted the Bank of Canada to cut its key interest rate by a quarter point.

Just months after the central bank indicated that it was on a course of hiking interest rates, it announced Tuesday it has changed direction, lowering its target rate to 4.25 per cent.

The move indicates that the central bank fears the Canadian economy is about to be sideswiped by a rapidly slowing U.S. economy and tighter credit conditions caused by financial market turmoil.

While Canada's economy is growing steadily right now, inflation is much softer than the central bank had projected earlier this fall. Total inflation was 2.4 per cent in October, and core inflation (which excludes the most volatile items) was 1.8 per cent, on a year-over-year basis.

Plus, the Canadian dollar unexpectedly spiked well above parity in early November, hurting exports and pushing down domestic prices, further taking the steam out of inflation, the bank said.

At the same time, financial markets around the world are struggling to come to terms with the U.S. sub-prime crisis, and have not been able to re-evaluate structured financial products, the central bank said in a statement.

Following the rate cut, the Canadian dollar fell more than a full cent, trading at 98.74 cents (U.S.) from Monday's close of 99.98 cents. Lower interest rates tend to diminish the allure of a country's currency,

The headwinds facing the Canadian economy have worsened since October and will likely drag on, pushing up bank funding costs, tightening credit conditions, and punishing the U.S. economy, the Bank of Canada noted.

“All of these factors considered, the bank judges that there has been a shift to the downside in the balance of risks around its October projection for inflation through 2009,” the bank's statement concludes. “In light of this shift, the bank has decided to lower the target for the overnight rate.”

A rate cut acts as an insurance policy, said Jacqui Douglas, economic strategist at TD Securities.

“While the Canadian economy is not yet showing any significant signs of strain, it's unlikely that it can keep growing at an above-potential rate for much longer, given the headwinds that it's encountering,” she wrote in a commentary.

It was no doubt a tough call for the central bank. Markets and economists have been divided on whether the central bank should stand pat or cut its key rate. The so-called shadow monetary policy council, run by the C.D. Howe Institute, recommended no cut, although the call was by no means unanimous.

“We think the Bank of Canada is at a difficult crossroads, and a mistake at this juncture could prove costly in the medium term,” foreign exchange analysts at the Bank of Nova Scotia said Tuesday.

Economists believe generally that if central banks wait too long to respond to a slowdown, they will be forced to make radical rate cuts to put the economy back on track.

Political pressure on the central bank to cut rates has been rising. The premiers of Ontario and Quebec have complained loudly that the high Canadian dollar is putting too much strain on their export-oriented economies.

Monday, organized labour and company executives in the manufacturing sector took the rare step of issuing a joint press release to urge the central bank to cut rates.

But at the same time, the Canadian economy is still in overdrive, the central bank says, and the job market is booming – posing risks for inflationary pressure.

In its statement, the Bank of Canada did not give many hints about whether it would continue to cut rates next year. Rather, it said it would take stock of the economy and financial market conditions again in January to make a new assessment.

Tuesday's announcement is the first time since April 2004 that the central bank has cut its key interest rate. After that time, the Bank of Canada gradually raised rates from a low point of 2 per cent, reaching all the way up to 4.50 per cent by July 2007. Rates have been on hold since July, until now.

With a file from Tavia Grant.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

West at West Point Grey by MAC Real Estate

Click here for the website or email me for a price list and suite availability.

An attack from the Left on EcoDensity